Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 191.296585 232.320529 283.173549 352.005239 444.593995 5.676474e+02 7.486058e+02
2025-04-27 150.022425 199.665368 269.573491 379.452896 556.515546 8.484587e+02 1.411720e+03
2025-05-04 125.605776 177.876206 258.341714 399.637854 662.534710 1.185396e+03 2.502266e+03
2025-05-11 108.198593 160.437584 246.468193 411.404657 757.645717 1.573887e+03 4.273082e+03
2025-05-18 94.534686 145.255736 233.345153 414.781098 837.140800 2.001212e+03 7.108027e+03
2025-05-25 82.857985 130.845591 217.712652 407.226224 888.208215 2.411753e+03 1.129859e+04
2025-06-01 73.214642 118.193514 202.408635 395.167275 922.279620 2.818375e+03 1.767624e+04
2025-06-08 65.352765 107.471779 188.620208 382.226532 948.049194 3.241633e+03 2.789576e+04
2025-06-15 63.374995 107.288442 195.821799 421.781132 1160.617403 4.880085e+03 8.616109e+04
2025-06-22 58.785771 101.365885 189.744208 425.523755 1258.009521 6.179263e+03 2.232236e+05
2025-06-29 55.617047 97.793446 188.106971 441.019776 1415.228023 8.424382e+03 1.083679e+06
2025-07-06 51.615389 91.999135 180.387459 436.637669 1489.228538 1.034345e+04 7.332871e+06
2025-07-13 50.491656 92.232573 187.311966 481.357005 1849.667431 1.795981e+04 NaN
2025-07-20 48.948015 91.368529 191.499694 520.066918 2244.868544 3.184574e+04 NaN
2025-07-27 47.082930 89.530017 192.860043 550.212549 2649.115698 5.707789e+04 NaN
2025-08-03 44.898257 86.676546 190.994373 568.072557 3013.027267 1.005199e+05 NaN
2025-08-10 42.494951 83.024469 186.294241 573.220187 3300.249130 1.704610e+05 NaN
2025-08-17 39.819423 78.440525 178.236629 561.678100 3432.184213 2.561515e+05 NaN
2025-08-24 37.213700 73.769627 169.249246 543.319820 3480.642263 3.618582e+05 NaN
2025-08-31 34.828698 69.410870 160.564774 523.705166 3496.783898 5.038666e+05 NaN
2025-09-07 34.730754 70.602950 168.454073 583.936282 4601.540486 4.349648e+06 NaN
2025-09-14 33.269163 68.255523 165.228711 589.677435 5051.691226 2.731117e+07 NaN
2025-09-21 32.304499 67.064871 165.429582 613.523877 5896.313221 NaN NaN